Trading Talk – International Football Friendly, England v Croatia

Head-to-head clashes between England and Croatia may be short on history, but they have provided spread bettors with fantastic action and enduring memories. England gave the Eastern Europeans a pounding in Portugal at the 2004 Euros, before Gary Neville’s infamous back pass to Paul Robinson in Zagreb and Steve McLaren’s umbrella-wielding nadir as national boss at Wembley contributed to non-qualification for Switzerland and Austria ‘08. More recently, a Theo Walcott hat trick in the Croatian capital means that the Three Lions have the current bragging rights and, almost exactly a year to the day since that fantastic result, stand on the verge of qualification for next year’s World Cup in South Africa.
 
Sporting Index’s spread punters will have noticed that, although there have only been sixbetween the sides, the fixture has thrown up just the one draw – the Euro ’96 warm-up which was also the inaugural contest. Buyers of England’s win index spread will see that they just have their noses in front with three victories to Croatia’s two over the past thirteen years. Meanwhile, spread buyers of Croatia’s win index spread will know that they are unbeaten in their previous Wembley visits, with their only defeat on English soil coming at a Portman Road friendly.

One of the scorers that night was Frank Lampard as the Three Lions won 3-1, and the Chelsea man has netted three times in five matches against the Croats, a fact that may appeal to spread buyers of individual players’ goal minutes. Wayne Rooney is a teammate likely to draw attention in the same market with traders noticing that, in addition to the five goals he’s already bagged for Manchester United this season, he too has three goals against Slaven Bilic’s outfit which have come in as many appearances.

Observers of the total goals market will recount a number of free-scoring games between these teams and spread sellers of the total goals will be cautious of the 3.6 goals-per-game average. Spread buyers of England’s team goals will know that they have scored a mean of 3.2 goals in their last ten games which stretches back to that 4-1 victory last September. Croatia’s ten-game run goes to the 2008 European Championships, and spread bettors looking closely at their total goals will see that they have scored an average of 2.1 goals in their last ten matches.

Sellers of the time of England’s first goal will be confident that they are able to continue a run that has seen them score in the first half seven times in their previous ten games. Of these occasions, Fabio Capello’s men have netted twice in the opening ten minutes, once between 11-20, and three times between 21-30.